NRL Round 3
My Game Handicaps | Market
-1.5
-1.5 Raiders v Bulldogs | 48.5
-5.5
-4.5 Roosters v Panthers | 44.5
-8.5
-10.5 Storm v Broncos | 55.5
-6.5
-5.5 Knights v Warriors | 49.5
-8.5
-7.5 Sharks v Dolphins | 47.5
-5.5
-5.5 Rabbits v Tigers | 53.5 @ Gosford
-4.5
-5.5 Eels v Dragons | 53.5
-6.5
-6.5 Cowboys v Titans | 57.5
My Bets
2u Raiders to win $1.85
4.5u Warriors -6.5 $1.90 BB
3u Storm win x Sharks win $1.99
1.25u Any time try Joe Chan (Storm) $4.00
2u Any time try Jack Howarth (Storm) $2.62
2.5u Eels-Dragons tries under 9.5 $1.85
Notes
2u Raiders to win $1.85
Raiders off two away games now return first home game and home training lead in, get key in; Bulldogs, not yet convinced where they are at and or that their attack and the new 9 and halves combination is working smoothly
4.5u Warriors -6.5 $1.90 BB
Starting to look a strong form line reference beating Roosters and Raiders still with key outs, play a very smart high possession, field position game, well coached, now travel but get Knights with major key spine and leadership outs, Knights also off what looks weak (inflated) form line beating Cowboys and Eagles
3u Storm win x Sharks win $1.99
Look the obvious two straight out this round
1.25u Any time try Joe Chan (Storm) $4.00
2u Any time try Jack Howarth (Storm) $2.62
The Broncos have a defending attitude issue at present, no more so that the magnified issues defending on their left edge with Mam the obvious target and then those beside him. This week they have dropped Shibasaki and changed the backrow and centre line ups, I’m sure this becomes an obvious target edge for the Storm and I want to play a two pronged play with the Storm’s right backrower in Chan and centre in Howarth
2.5u Eels-Dragons tries under 9.5 $1.85
I am not convinced this game gets to 10 tries; the recent season try peak average at this ground is 7.5 while we also get Klein who can show a lesser preference to as many 6 agains; plus we have two teams fighting for some credibility and a win, highlighted by the Dragons desperation and their cornerstone defensive focus.
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
- Raiders
- Panthers
- Storm
- Warriors
- Sharks
- Rabbits
- Eels
- Cowboys
Game Tips
Raiders by 4
Panthers by 8
Storm by 10
Warriors by 8
Sharks by 10
Rabbits by 6
Eels by 4
Cowboys by 6
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
Raiders v Bulldogs
Ricky Stuart milestone of 300 games as Raiders coach. Raiders have a handy head-to-head record here, have won 5 of last 6 H2H when at this ground, and won 7 of their last 9 home games. Also enjoy a good record of covering 10 of last 14 when at home. Raiders off back to back away games return home, and enjoy a very good record responding in such circumstances when off a loss. They were in the contest for far longer than it looked on paper last week, and that Warriors form line is starting to look ok. Bulldogs off long post Vegas break and prep, attack was very clunky first up and while they dominated field position they did not convert.
Like the Raiders back at home and with the potential advantage of some week to week footy and match fitness under their belt. They have an excellent record here, return off two away games and normally respond well off a loss.
Roosters v Panthers
Roosters have found the Panthers a very tough nut to crack for a number of years now, have lost 11 of the last 12 match ups with all 11 of those wins each by margins wider than 4.5. Allianz Stadium has also not been a factor with Panthers having won 6 of their last 7 here. Roosters much better last week, certainly far more physical and committed to their D, and while things got close late then did enough to win, Robson back a key in. Panthers are such a well coached, well oiled machine, conceded just the one try to date and toweled up what we would expect to be top 6 contenders to open the season in Broncos and Sharks. Liam Martin is a nice key in for them as well.
Panthers are the early benchmark, most notably last week they cleaned up their handling and error count and just professionally strangled the game. They have had a very lopsided hold over the Roosters for some time.
Storm v Broncos
Off so many top of list outs through the off season Bellamy has once again turned water into wine with the graduation of players like Leo, Chan, Lisati and Clarke as they now get their chance in the starting 17 – and shine. Not sure yet how the form strength of those opening two stands up; the Eels were a soft walk in the park, while the Dragons compounded late wit hself error to embarrass themselves. They are tho a very different gravy at home and have won their last 9 here; lost the most recent two that mattered to Broncos (Rd27 and Grand Final) but have an obvious history of dominating this opponent (especially in Melbourne). Maguires' team look rudderless if not careless in defence, leaking 66 off their opening two games (and similar to Hull KR) and are so in and out of moments in each game with horribly high error counts. Very hard to like at present, and one wonders if having climbed the mountain last year if hunger remains, and complacency has set in?
Broncos have Reynolds out and also a major re shuffle of their left edge with Shibasaki dropped and new back row and centre combinations, obviously to try and sure up the horrible defensive leaks exposed through recent weeks. But Mam remains on this edge and his defensive misses have been very well exposed.
Knights v Warriors
Such a pity the Knights have been hit so hard and early by the injury stick with Ponga and Brown very key outs off last week's walk through of the Eagles at Brookvale. Sharpe is right a positive in, while Hunt at fullback can also make things happen, but two marquee play outs is major. Finished last season losing their last 6 home games, will be keen off the positive opening two wins to show up at home. Warriors even with their own long list of outs have also won 2 from 2, have a sharp coach who likes to dominate possession and then field position and have offered their opponents little in return to date. Their head to head record is healthy winning 5 of their last 7, but when in Newcastle it has not been as positive losing 5 of their last 5 here.
Both teams have a list fo injury outs, but the Knights are hard hit with Ponga and Brown. There also has to be some question as to how freely Sharpe may play returning from a knee issue. The warriors have been very good at controlling the game and field position in their last two outings. Against a weakened opponent, they look like they might get them at the right time.
Sharks v Dolphins
Sharks were actually not that bad last week going down 26-6 at Bathurst, it was more a matter of the Panthers just being dam good and very much in control. Sharks return home where they have won their last 8 and 11 of their last 12, clearly they play well here, while the Dolphins travel which has not been a recent strength losing 8 of their last 11 when in Sydney and only covering the line at 40% last 24 distant away games. Dolphins have a major issue at #9 until their first choice top two return (Marshall-King and Donoghoe) and have been ugly and clunky in each of their opening two games, if not very lucky to squeak home late on the back of some Hammer magic last week.
Sharks will benefit from getting back home, have some further learnings off playing the Panthers and will improve. Dolphins have a major issue at dummy half and overall remain very clunky in attack and hard to trust, add to this the very poor Sydney and distant travel record. Like the Sharks back at home.
Rabbits v Tigers
@ Gosford Rabbits will be disappointed having got themselves back into the contest last second half last week, to have let that go (some poor discipline), they are still without at least 3 significant outs but do get Humphreys back this week at #7. Their Gosford record has been strong, as has their head to head record over the Tigers (winning 9 of the last 11). Tigers up and about early with a very positive win at Leichhardt last week, albeit against another poor Cowboys offering; their key leaders were strong, and they dominated pretty much from the outset. Nice test and clash here, away wins have not been a recent strength, and clearly their match-up record has been poor, but if they can bring many of the positives they offered last week, we have a very good game.
A good test for both. The Rabbits have shown periods of quality through the opening two weeks, have some quality strike when it matters and should benefit with Humphreys back at #7. Tigers very good against a weak opponent last week, get their chance to put back to back positive offerings on the board. Small lean to Rabbits but, looks like a very good match up.
Eels v Dragons
Looks a tricky match up with some difficulty in who and what to trust. How did the Eels escape a 6-20 position with a win in Brisbane last week, in a 72 point game (never a strong or deep form reference), but they at least did take their chances and will be positive off an unexpected away win to now play first up at home. They get Hopgood back, Pezet found some form last week, I’m still unconvinced with what is happening at #9 (either), and or that it is working. Dragons will be disappointed with a near win in Vegas and then striking back to lead the Storm mid-second half at home last week, compounded by self-error and blowing the result. They’ll have some hunger and desperation to get on the board. Eels have won 13 of the last 17 head to head including the last 4 straight, while the Dragons have now lost their last 8 away games.
Looks a tight tussle. Eels play well at home but have a horrible record when a fav at these longer lines (circa -6.0), while the Dragons will bring some desperation but equally have a horrible away record. Small lean to Eels.
Cowboys v Titans
5pm on a sunny hot North Queensland afternoon with these two… what could possibly go wrong. Cowboys under some heat and focus, off two away defeats to start the season, get Cotter and Laybutt as ins and potentially one of their stronger line ups, but very hard to trust, in particular, in defence. They have enjoyed a good record vs this opponent, winning 10 of the last 12, and 6 of the last 7 when at this ground. Titans blew an opportunity last week; Campbell is a massive in, he makes things happen and will ignite their attack. Titans face a tough opening to the season with 10 of first 13 games away, off a poor prior travel record, but if they can open this game up and consistently attack this could well turn into last try wins..
We could see any thing here from a 24-22 result to a 46-44 scoreathon. Add to this we have Peter Gough and all of his indecision and lopsided slant to a game, seriously anything could happen. The total is already at 58, which looks way too high, but both could throw defence out the window and just take turns scoring. Titans have a horrible record at the ground and when they travel, think the Cowboys have a point to prove back at home.
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
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